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A poll in Brazil showed a split impact of the crisis at the STF on Senate and presidential voting
A Datafolha survey found that support for a possible political trial against Supreme Court justices improves voting intention for one segment of the electorate, but reduces it for another. It also measured how much the court crisis and the Master case influence the presidential race.
A Datafolha poll released by G1 Globo and Folha de S.Paulo showed that the crisis at Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court and the case linked to Master bank are affecting voters in a divided way just weeks before the elections.
According to the survey, 34% of respondents said their chances of voting for a Senate candidate increase if that candidate supports the impeachment of STF justices. By contrast, for 31% that position reduces the likelihood of supporting them, while 30% said it does not change their decision and 5% did not know how to answer.
The study also found differences by electoral preference. Among those who vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, 49% said a favorable stance toward the impeachment of Supreme Court justices increases their chances of voting. Among Lula voters, that response was 23%, according to both outlets. Folha de S.Paulo added that within that same group, 36% said that position reduces the likelihood of voting for the candidate and another 36% said it does not alter their decision.
In this year’s election, 54 of the 81 Senate seats will be renewed, that is, two-thirds of the chamber, so each voter will have to choose two candidates.
As for the presidential race, the survey indicated that for 47% the crisis at the STF and the Master scandal do influence the vote: 36% said the influence is large and 11% said it is small. Forty-nine percent considered that it will have no impact and 4% did not know how to answer.
According to G1 Globo, the poll was conducted amid an escalation of tensions within the STF after André Mendonça lifted the secrecy on a Federal Police report about messages exchanged between former banker Daniel Vorcaro and a number attributed to Alexandre de Moraes. Since then, other documents and messages have become known, some still under seal, with references to other members of the court and to relatives.
G1 Globo said that Moraes and Gilmar Mendes questioned Mendonça’s handling of the Master case. According to that outlet, Moraes accused him of irregularities and of overlooking procedures applicable to investigations involving officials with legal immunity, while Gilmar attributed his conduct to a political-electoral motivation. Mendonça denied those accusations.
In addition, G1 Globo reported that an extraordinary session convened by Edson Fachin to discuss the Federal Police report ended without a resolution after clashes among the court’s justices. Flávio Dino asked for more time to review the file and has up to 90 days to return it to the full court.
On methodology, there is a difference between the outlets. G1 Globo reported that Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 or older between September 15 and 16. Folha de S.Paulo, meanwhile, published that there were 2,001 respondents in 125 municipalities between September 15 and 17. Both agreed that the margin of error is two percentage points, the confidence level is 95% and the registration with the Electoral Justice is BR-04029/2026.
Sources
About this note. Written by El Notero with the assistance of artificial intelligence, based on what was published by the cited outlet. El Notero did not do its own reporting on this event.
