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A Quaest poll showed Lula ahead in Pernambuco and a close race in the Federal District
The survey released by G1 Globo placed the president with a wide lead in Pernambuco. In the Federal District, by contrast, the gap with Flávio Bolsonaro is within the margin of error.
A Quaest poll released by G1 Globo showed very different scenarios for the 2026 presidential election in Pernambuco and in the Federal District.
In Pernambuco, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the first-round vote intention with 54%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 21%. Further behind were Augusto Cury with 5%, Renan Santos with 2% and Ronaldo Caiado with 1%. The rest of the names measured registered 0%.
According to the same survey, in that district undecided voters total 10% and those who would cast a blank or null vote, or would not go to vote, account for 7%.
For a possible runoff in Pernambuco between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the poll published by G1 Globo assigned 58% to the current president and 25% to the PL leader. Twelve percent said they would cast a blank or null vote or would not take part, while 5% said they were undecided.
In the Federal District, according to another Quaest survey cited by G1 Globo, Flávio Bolsonaro got 33% and Lula 32%. Behind them were Ronaldo Caiado with 8%, Augusto Cury with 7%, Renan Santos with 3% and Romeu Zema with 1%.
That survey also indicated that 80% of the voters consulted consider their voting decision final, while 19% said they could still change it before the October 4 election.
In Pernambuco, Quaest interviewed 1,302 people aged 16 or older between September 19 and 22, with a margin of error of three percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The poll was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number PE-05671/2026. In the Federal District, the firm surveyed 1,104 people in the same age group on the same dates, with the same margin of error and confidence level, under registrations DF-02596/2026 and BR-03609/2026.
In addition, G1 Globo noted that Leonardo Avalanche was again the PRTB candidate after the Electoral Court barred Pablo Marçal from running because he was ineligible.
Sources
About this note. Written by El Notero with the assistance of artificial intelligence, based on what was published by the cited outlet. El Notero did not conduct its own reporting on this event.
