Paraguay
A political scientist sees genuine differences within Honor Colorado and warns of uncertainty toward 2028
Esteban Caballero dismissed the idea that the rift between Horacio Cartes and Pedro Alliana is part of an electoral maneuver. He also said the ruling-party internal dispute could open an opportunity for the opposition if it manages to define its unity mechanism.
The signs of tension between Horacio Cartes and Pedro Alliana within Honor Colorado are, for political scientist and researcher Esteban Caballero, a real conflict and not a staged effort to reinforce the vice president’s image of autonomy. As he explained to Última Hora, he sees real differences within the movement and considers it unlikely that this is a carefully designed tactic.
The analysis comes after the meeting between Cartes and Alliana, which ended without a photo and with the vice president himself acknowledging that there is discomfort on both sides. According to Caballero, this kind of friction is common in spaces that achieve a broad victory, as Honor Colorado did in the June primaries against Colorado Añetete and Fuerza Republicana. In that context, he said that when a strong external opponent fades, internal contradictions usually emerge.
On the leaderships, Caballero described Alliana as someone who maintains respect for his political leader, although with reservations about some positions because of a question of credibility. By contrast, he considered Cartes imprudent for having presented the Minister of Urban Planning, Housing and Habitat, Juan Carlos Baruja, as the sector’s vice-presidential pre-candidate. According to what he told Última Hora, the former president went too far in making that announcement.
Caballero also focused on the electoral impact of this dispute. He noted, according to Última Hora, that the question is whether the conflict could disappoint or demobilize Colorado voters in the municipal elections and in the 2028 general elections. Even so, he considered that behavior atypical within a party with a consolidated electoral structure. In that framework, he observed that in Asunción there is a voter who is more sensitive and informed about the political situation than in other municipalities, especially those farther from the capital.
Looking ahead to 2028, the political scientist said it is difficult to describe a definitive scenario and summed up the outlook with an idea of uncertainty: anything can happen. Although he did not rule out the emergence of another figure in the process, he was skeptical about the possibility that Alliana would be displaced as Honor Colorado’s presidential candidate. At the same time, he said this dispute could become an opportunity for the opposition, provided it resolves as soon as possible the method for defining a single ticket.
Sources
About this note. Written by El Notero with assistance from artificial intelligence, based on what was published by the cited outlet. El Notero did not conduct its own reporting on this event.
