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New polls show Democrats leading among Latino voters ahead of the midterms
Two surveys released Sunday suggest Republican gains with Latino voters have weakened. The economy and immigration enforcement emerge as major sources of erosion for Donald Trump.
Two polls released Sunday show Democrats regaining an edge among Latino voters ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, a shift that could complicate the Republican effort to keep control of Congress.
According to an NBC News/Telemundo survey cited by POLITICO, 59% of Latino registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 35% favor Republican control. A separate CBS News/YouGov poll also found Democrats ahead among likely Hispanic House voters, by 60% to 39%.
POLITICO noted that Donald Trump had improved his standing with these voters in 2024. The outlet’s analysis of that election found that he increased his vote share by an average of more than 6 percentage points in majority-Hispanic counties compared with 2020.
That progress had become a key part of the Republican midterm strategy. POLITICO reported that when Texas Republicans unveiled their redistricting proposal last year, four of their five possible pickup opportunities were in majority-Hispanic districts.
The new polling now points to slippage for Trump among Latino voters. In the NBC News/Telemundo survey, his approval rating among Latino registered voters stood at 27%, with 69% disapproving. On the economy, 74% disapproved of his handling, and 78% disapproved of how he dealt with cost-of-living concerns. Another 65% said his policies had worsened economic conditions.
Inflation and the cost of living ranked as the country’s most important issue for 33% of respondents, followed by government corruption at 22%. Another 10% cited jobs and the economy. In that context, Latino voters now favor Democrats over Republicans on the economy by 48% to 27%, and on cost of living by 45% to 26%, according to NBC News/Telemundo.
The conflict with Iran is also affecting views on the economy. POLITICO said the war is now in its seventh month and that the average diesel price hit a record $6.53 in September, according to AAA. In the CBS survey, 91% of Hispanic registered voters said the conflict was responsible for rising oil and gas prices in the United States.
Trump’s immigration enforcement is also creating political pressure. In the NBC News/Telemundo poll, 67% of Latino voters said the president’s immigration crackdown had gone too far, while 22% said he had taken the right approach.
POLITICO also highlighted the case of María Elvira Salazar, the Florida Republican lawmaker who released an ad in English and Spanish criticizing the administration for going too far on immigration and arguing that Hispanics who backed Trump in 2024 feel betrayed. After the ad, Trump told reporters he still supported her, but later reposted several critical messages about her on Truth Social, including one calling for her to be replaced before the midterms.
Even so, discontent with Trump and Republicans has not turned into broad enthusiasm for Democrats. According to NBC News/Telemundo, Latino voters are nearly evenly split in their view of the Democratic Party, with 41% positive and 42% negative. Views of the Republican Party, however, have worsened to 62% negative, up from 46% in September 2024.
The NBC News/Telemundo survey was conducted Sept. 21-28 among 800 Latino registered voters and has a margin of error of 3.46 points. The CBS News/YouGov poll surveyed 2,166 adults from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, with a margin of error of 2.5 points.
Sources
About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.
