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BRASIL Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie on the eve of Brazil’s first round
Quaest and Datafolha surveys released on Saturday point to a very close 2026 presidential race in Brazil. In valid votes, both polls place Lula ahead, but within the margin of error.
The latest polls released on Saturday in Brazil suggest a razor-thin contest between Lula of the PT and Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL on the eve of the 2026 presidential first round.
According to figures published by O Globo, Quaest gave Lula 46% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 45%. In the Datafolha survey, Lula posted 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro 42%. In both cases, the gap remains within the two-point margin of error.
In the Quaest poll, Augusto Cury, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each appear with 3%. In Datafolha’s numbers, Caiado reaches 4%, while Renan Santos and Augusto Cury have 3% and Romeu Zema has 1%.
O Globo reported that the Quaest survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo, interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 and older between October 2 and 3, has a 95% confidence level, and was registered under BR-02197/2026. The Datafolha poll, commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo, surveyed 4,006 voters aged 16 and older on Saturday, also with a 95% confidence level, and was filed under BR-01708-2026.
According to Folha de S.Paulo, the first-round campaign is ending with Flávio Bolsonaro at his strongest point and gaining ground among groups such as the middle class, voters in the Southeast, men and evangelicals, while Lula has struggled to expand his support.
The newspaper also said that in Datafolha’s spontaneous poll, 11% still did not know whom they would vote for, and 13% said their vote could still change before Sunday.
Folha de S.Paulo added that more than 158 million voters are eligible to cast ballots on Sunday and that the three-point gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Datafolha’s final pre-election poll is the narrowest recorded by the institute at this stage since 1989.
Sources
About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.
