New Mexico’s early 2028 Democratic primary boosts Native American voters’ influence

New Mexico’s move into the early Democratic presidential primary calendar for 2028, with voting set for February 15, is expected to give Native American voters far more sway in the nomination fight. According to Axios, Native Americans make up about 12% of the state’s population, and New Mexico includes 23 federally recognized tribes.

In past cycles, New Mexico usually voted much later, often in June. With the state now set to weigh in early, at a point when the field may already be down to two or three contenders, Democratic strategists cited by Axios say it could play an outsized role in shaping the party’s nominee.

The shift is already changing campaign behavior. Axios reported that prospective 2028 presidential teams have been calling Native leaders to identify key Indigenous power brokers and to better understand tribal government dynamics.

Deb Haaland, the former U.S. interior secretary and the first Native American to lead a Cabinet agency, told Axios that any candidate hoping to win New Mexico will have to listen to tribes. Native leaders and allies say that will push presidential hopefuls to engage more seriously with issues such as tribal sovereignty, land and water rights, and rural infrastructure.

Axios quoted New Mexico Democratic consultant Isaac Dakota Casados, a Navajo Nation member, saying he has been fielding heavy outreach from would-be presidential campaigns trying to understand how Native voters fit into the broader electoral map. He told the outlet that Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker acknowledged he needs to learn more about tribal leadership, while New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker showed strong interest in New Mexico’s many tribal cultures.

Kalyn Free, a Choctaw Nation citizen who serves on the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee, also told Axios that she has been hearing from presidential hopefuls and their teams.

New Mexico’s new prominence could also elevate fresh power centers within Indigenous politics. Axios noted that tribal governments are likely to be courted for endorsements. Haaland, a Laguna Pueblo member who is running for governor of New Mexico this year, appears especially well placed to become an important validator for 2028 candidates in Indian country. The outlet said she has recently met with Booker, is appearing at an event with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg this weekend, and that Pritzker helped raise money for her in New Mexico this month.

According to Axios, Haaland said she discussed with Pritzker her work investigating the legacy of federal Indian boarding schools and President Donald Trump’s cuts to protections for Native American sacred sites. Asked about a possible endorsement in the 2028 primary, she did not commit.

The calendar change also fits a broader Democratic goal. Party officials hope that moving New Mexico up will help Democrats better compete for Native American voters and reverse some of the shift toward Trump that polls cited by Axios suggested occurred among some Native voters in the 2024 general election, amid inflation pressures.

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham told Axios that those votes are highly consequential and pointed to the Navajo Nation vote as a key factor in Joe Biden’s 2020 win in Arizona. Native American leaders had also pushed this year for the Democratic National Committee to place New Mexico early in the primary schedule. In February, the All Pueblo Council of Governors passed a resolution saying the move would reshape the relationship between presidential candidates and Pueblo peoples after a previous calendar that, in its view, had effectively muted Native voices.

Sources

• Axios

About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.