Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula among independents and up by two points in a runoff scenario

A new Quaest poll released on Monday found that Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula among independent voters in a possible presidential runoff. In that segment, the PL senator has 36% voting intention, while the president has 26%. Blank, spoiled and abstention responses add up to 29%, according to O Globo.

In the previous survey, released on September 7, Flávio Bolsonaro had 32% and Lula 28% within the same group. O Globo reported that Felipe Nunes, Quaest’s director and a professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, said the numbers reinforce the importance of independent voters in the electoral dispute.

Looking at all respondents, the poll places Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40% in a hypothetical runoff. Both O Globo and Folha de S.Paulo said the result remains within the two-point margin of error, meaning the race is still a statistical tie.

According to O Globo, by political identification Lula wins 96% both among self-described lulistas and among the non-lulista left, while Flávio Bolsonaro gets 99% among bolsonaristas and 85% among the non-bolsonarista right. Support for the opposing candidate stays very low in those groups.

Folha de S.Paulo added that in the previous round both candidates were at 41%, while on August 14 Lula stood at 43% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40%.

The survey was commissioned by Globo in partnership with O Globo. Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and older across Brazil from September 10 to 13. The reported confidence level is 95%, and the poll was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-03607/2026.

Sources

• O Globo
• Folha de S.Paulo

About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.