Datafolha shows a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round and runoff

A Datafolha poll reported by O Globo points to a closely contested Brazilian presidential race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. In first-round voting intention, Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 36%, a gap that remains within the two-point margin of error.

In a simulated runoff, Lula reaches 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44%. According to O Globo, those figures are unchanged from the previous survey released on September 11.

Among the other second-round matchups, Augusto Cury is the only candidate who numerically ties Lula, with both at 44%. Against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula gets 46% and Caiado 42%, also within a technical tie. In simulations against Romeu Zema and Renan Santos, Lula leads by 49% to 39% and 47% to 38%, respectively.

The survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 and older between September 15 and 16. The poll has a two-percentage-point margin of error, a 95% confidence level, and was registered with Brazil’s electoral court under number BR-04029/2026.

The poll also found that 76% of voters say their choice is fully settled, while 24% say they could still change their vote. In the breakdown by candidate support base, O Globo reported that 81% of Lula voters say they are fully decided and 18% say their vote could still change. Among Flávio Bolsonaro voters, those shares are 80% and 20%.

In the first round, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are followed by Augusto Cury with 6%, Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, Renan Santos with 3%, and Romeu Zema with 2%. Samara Martins and Rui Costa Pimenta each have 1%. Blank, null or no-one votes stand at 6%, while undecided voters account for 3%.

Sources

• O Globo
• O Globo

About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.