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Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied in a possible runoff
A survey released Monday by O Globo put Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41% in a second-round simulation. In the first-round scenario, Lula stands at 37% and the senator at 33%.
A Quaest poll released Monday by O Globo showed a technical tie between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in a possible presidential runoff. In that scenario, the PL senator draws 42% of voting intentions and the PT president 41%.
The figures published by the newspaper indicate that a week earlier Flávio Bolsonaro had 42% and Lula 40% in the same matchup. In the latest survey, blank and null ballots or respondents saying they would not vote account for 14%, while undecided voters make up 3%.
Quaest also tested other runoff pairings. Lula posts 41% against Ronaldo Caiado’s 39%, 39% against Augusto Cury’s 35%, 41% against Renan Santos’s 38%, and 46% against Romeu Zema’s 32%.
In the first-round projection, Lula receives 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro 33%, according to matching figures reported by O Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. They are followed by Augusto Cury with 6%, Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, Renan Santos with 3%, and Romeu Zema with 1%. Undecided voters account for 8%, while blank or null ballots and declared non-voters stand at 7%.
O Globo also reported that in the spontaneous poll Lula reaches 31% and Flávio Bolsonaro 26%. The paper added that 79% of respondents who named a candidate say their choice is final, while 21% say they could still change their minds.
On candidate rejection, O Globo said Flávio Bolsonaro records 56% and Lula 55%. They are followed by Romeu Zema with 43%, Ronaldo Caiado with 40%, Renan Santos with 35%, and Augusto Cury with 28%.
According to O Globo, the survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo. It was conducted from September 17 to 20 with 2,004 people aged 16 or older, has a margin of error of two percentage points, a 95% confidence level, and was registered under BR-06004/2026.
In a separate figure reported only by O Globo, 50% disapprove of Lula’s job performance and 44% approve.
Sources
About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.
