Argentina
Economic Slowdown Puts Pressure on the Government and Complicates Its Electoral Strategy
According to La Nacion, activity, employment and credit delinquency data deepened doubts within the ruling coalition. In that context, differences over the budget, the relationship with Patricia Bullrich and the search for agreements to move forward with the suspension of the PASO grew.
The Government is going through a period of political tension amid adverse economic signals that, according to La Nacion, are affecting the ruling coalition’s political strategy ahead of Javier Milei’s reelection bid.
According to that outlet, over the past week internal disputes within the ruling coalition were combined with a series of official data that complicated the atmosphere at Casa Rosada. Indec reported a 0.6% drop in activity in the second quarter, along with declines in private consumption and investment, as well as a three-tenths increase in the unemployment rate. To that was added, according to the Central Bank, a new rise in household credit delinquency in July.
Still according to La Nacion, concern within the ruling coalition centers on the possibility of another quarter of decline, a scenario that would place Argentina in recession just as the Government seeks to accelerate its strategy to consolidate a project of political continuity.
In that context, the budget opened a new internal conflict. La Nacion reported that Javier Milei backed cuts to Disability, universities and the elimination of the automatic update of the Universal Child Allowance. That scheme generated discomfort in sectors of the coalition and fueled a new escalation by Patricia Bullrich, who once again publicly distanced herself.
According to that newspaper, Martín Menem advanced contacts with dialogue-oriented blocs to prevent the cut to Disability from deepening, while opposition objections grew over other Executive initiatives, including the Malvinas bill, which includes sanctions for the “manipulation of public opinion” through fake news.
The report also said that Bullrich appears as one of the voices most pressing to review the course of the official plan, in a context in which part of Karina Milei’s inner circle suspects the minister is seeking to preserve room of her own if the economic situation weakens the President. She, according to La Nacion, rejects that interpretation.
At the same time, Casa Rosada is seeking to strengthen its parliamentary and territorial support. The immediate main goal is to secure the electoral reform to suspend the PASO before the end of October, although the necessary votes are not there yet. Negotiations involve governors and legislative allies, with progress especially in the relationship with the PRO.
According to La Nacion, within the ruling coalition there is an acknowledgment of willingness to facilitate Jorge Macri’s path to reelection in the City in exchange for political support, while they hope the Macrismo will back the elimination of the primaries and deactivate dissident alternatives.
The assessment drawn by the newspaper is that a possible drop in Milei’s polling weakens his ability to attract allies who prioritize preserving local power. In that context, the Government’s challenge is not only to sustain the adjustment and disinflation, but also to prevent economic deterioration from ultimately eroding its political plan.
Sources
About this note. Written by El Notero with the assistance of artificial intelligence, based on what was published by the cited outlet. El Notero did not conduct its own reporting on this event.
