BRASIL Quaest poll shows Lula ahead among first-round abstainers

A Quaest poll reported by O Globo and G1 Globo showed a technical tie in Brazil’s presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro has 46% of voting intention and Lula 44%, a gap that falls within the two-point margin of error.

According to O Globo, among voters who cast blank or null ballots or did not turn out in the first round, 43% now say they intend to vote for Lula and 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Another 17% say they would again vote blank or null or stay home, while 2% are undecided. This group accounts for 22% of respondents.

The same survey, as cited by O Globo, found that among those who backed Ronaldo Caiado in the first round, 42% now lean toward Flávio Bolsonaro and 23% toward Lula, while 33% would keep to blank, null or no vote and 2% remain undecided.

Among voters of Renan Santos, 40% say they would vote for Flávio Bolsonaro and 14% for Lula. In that segment, 43% say they would again vote blank or null or not vote, and 3% are undecided.

For those who supported Augusto Cury in the first round, 34% say they would vote for Lula and 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Another 30% would keep to blank, null or abstention, and 6% have not decided.

G1 Globo added that 10% of Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round voters made their choice on election day itself, compared with 5% among Lula’s voters. It also reported that 84% of Lula voters had made up their minds before the campaign began, versus 66% among Flávio Bolsonaro’s voters.

The poll interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or older between Oct. 10 and 13, with a 95% confidence level. It was registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-08729/2026.

Sources

• O Globo
• G1 Globo

About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.