World
BRASIL Datafolha puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula as both camps frame race as still open
Datafolha’s first runoff poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45% in total voting intention. In valid votes, the gap was 52% to 48%, in a contest the pollster described as within the margin of error.
Datafolha’s first survey for the runoff, released Thursday and reported by O Globo, showed Flávio Bolsonaro with 49% of voting intention and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 45%.
In valid votes, the poll placed the PL candidate at 52% and President Lula of the PT at 48%. According to O Globo, the institute said the four-point gap amounts to a technical tie at the edge of the margin of error, though with a higher probability that Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead.
The poll was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. O Globo reported that Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people aged 16 and older on October 6 and 7, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level.
Both campaigns presented the numbers positively. People close to Flávio Bolsonaro argued, according to O Globo, that he gained more ground than Lula from the first round to the runoff phase and that endorsements helped him. On Lula’s side, an aide told the newspaper that the impact of those endorsements was smaller than expected and maintained that the election remains undecided.
Based on figures cited by O Globo, Flávio Bolsonaro rose from 47% to 52% in valid votes compared with the first round, while Lula moved from 45% to 48%.
The survey also found that 94% of voters say their choice is fully decided, while 6% say they could still change their minds. In addition, 76% said they will vote for their candidate because they see that person as the best option, while 19% said they will vote mainly to defeat the opponent, according to O Globo.
In the spontaneous poll, where respondents are not first shown the candidates’ names, 46% named Flávio Bolsonaro and 44% named Lula. Another 5% said they would cast a blank or null vote or vote for nobody, and 4% were undecided, O Globo reported.
Among the negative signs for Lula, O Globo highlighted that his rejection rate was higher: 46% said they would not vote for him, compared with 43% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources
About this piece. Written by El Notero with AI assistance, from reporting published by the outlet cited above. El Notero did no original reporting on this story.
